Day 2 - The day to end all days..?

After much cogitation the SPC has upgraded yesterday’s moderate risk to the first high risk for almost exactly 2 years for storms over north west Texas and Oklahoma with a 30% “hashed risk” for tornadoes i.e. 30% risk of an EF2-EF5 tornado within a 25 mile radius. Funny to think that we were at the offices of the SPC only a couple of days ago – it will no doubt be all hands on deck today.

The wording is stark and specific:

“An outbreak (my emphasis) of tornadoes, some potentially long track and violent is expected today and into this evening over portions of north west Texas into western and central Okahoma…”

That’s as unequivocal as it gets.

After a  fitful night’s sleep I’m awake again at 04:30. The day’s forecast had no soporific qualities, quite the contrary. A line of severe storms were slated to flow over us from the south west by 06:00. As it turned out these were further to our north, so they’ll be less likely to mess up the rest of today. A cell did pass over our hotel at about 07:30 requiring a quick WhatsApp Reveille and 20 minutes to get up, get ready, packed and into the SUV and away from the predicted 3” hail.

Breakfast was at Ye Olde Pancake Station in Amarillo for the “best pancakes in the world”. I had an omelette. Small world syndrome – we run into Malcolm Stewart from 2016 who is out chasing and we have a catch up.

Today is “grey soup”, misty and dank so we drive south on I27 towards Lubbock in search of some sunshine and a review of next steps. We arrive at Lubbock with some time to kill but Lubbock appears closed on a Monday…so we go and see some black-tailed prairie dogs and take some snaps. They’re actually quite cute. While there the SPC upgrades the tornado risk to a gob smacking 45%. The only time I’ve ever seen this was in 2011 in Dixie Alley that produced a number of EF5 tornadoes in Alabama and Mississippi. I’ve never seen anything like it while actually chasing.

We stop at a Subway. The queue is too long so we head east on US62 and stop at Floydada for a Subway; 6 inches for now, 6 inches for later. Everyone there is friendly and fascinated by what we’re doing and where we’re from. We won’t be stopping much today.

A storm has bubbled up to our south west and quickly rises to over 40,000 feet which is small compared with what is to come. We move south to Matador on Texas 70 South to intercept this first storm of the day. Things look promising as our storm ascends to 56,000 feet, with an adjacent storm displaying a billowing, sharply defined updraft with an anvil above us with nicely formed mammatus. Our target storm is quickly becoming organised with a defined precipitation free base with accompanying wall cloud. We stop to take some photos and the wind on our backs is warm and reassuringly juicy with moisture. The storm becomes tornado warned and the game is on; shortly after a hook echo appears on radar with what looks like a debris ball. If there’s a tornado in there it’s well and truly rain wrapped and consequently invisible, not unusual on the higher risk days.

We drop south then return north to get in a better position as our storm weakens. These storms are hurtling along at 40 knots and are consequently hard to chase. The storm persists, gets into better air and reorganises. Meanwhile the storm to our east has a brief tornado reported and as we travel further east on US62 we finally see other chasers and there’s a lot of them including Cloud 9. Fortunately the road is good and it’s easy to park up despite the chaser convergence. There’s evidence of hail damage with shredded tree leaves on the road and golf ball size hail on the verge.

The two storms have now merged and continue to be organised with a precipitation free base and rear flank downdraft (RFD) wrapping around the storm characterised by a distinct clear slot. We head north on US83 to Childress, have a coffee and regroup. This storm will likely plough on into Oklahoma and probably strengthen, but we’re not going there. The number of chasers on Spotter Network is ridiculous and the roads will get progressively clogged with chasers so we’re heading south on US83 to Guthrie to await the next round of likely stronger storms as they collide with good air and hopefully become tornadic. We have a pit stop in Guthrie at the 6666 Supply House. It’s shut. We then head west on US82 towards Dickens and a new line of severe warned storms, some of which are already displaying rotation. We stop for a review and the mobiles chime in unison as the National Weather Service sends out a tornado warning on the most northerly cell.

We stop on the median (central reservation) and wait for the tornado warned cell to come to us. Cloud to ground lightning is increasing in the gloom and the supercell is now towering at 61,000 feet. That’s impressive and there’s an equally impressive hook echo on radar. The storm is getting closer as is the lightning so it’s time to retreat east back to Guthrie and the 6666 Supply House where we set up to stare into the gloom. More small world stuff as Jock McGinty and his tour turn up at the same place. There’s a confirmed wedge tornado somewhere in the dark rainy mess and one edge of it is glimpsed, back lit by lightning as a tornado siren starts up close by – hairs always stand up on the back of your neck when you hear these.

We’re booked into the Days Inn at Abilene and head south on US83 and park up. A large tour has chosen the same spot – it’s Roger Hill and Silverlining Tours. We say hello.

We leave the current storm and continue south to intercept another tornado warned supercell for a lightning display as it is now dark. Dinner tonight is at Sonic Burger at Anson, and I’m with the Rat on this one. Mass confusion ensues as everyone struggles with how to order though the drive in booths but we get there in the end.

We get to Abilene and drive west to Merkel on US84 and park up for a lightning display with a powerful, warm, moist inflow jet on our backs continuing to feed the storms with numerous tornado warned storms waiting their turn to file past.

Although today’s big event didn’t pan out (these big ones rarely do) and what was happening was hidden in rain we still picked the right storm and got a fleeting glimpse of a wedge tornado. There’s also a bowing segment of storms scheduled to roll over Abilene in the next couple of hours and we’re still under a tornado watch until 04:00. Hope I sleep better tonight.

Total Miles: 555

Order of photos scrambled for some reason. Will sort this at some point :o(